Japan seem to be out of luck lately. Apart from the 2011 magnitude 9 earthquake, scientists has now estimated that there is a 75% chance of an earthquake taking place with a magnitude of 7 within the next 4 years.
The government had previously suggested that the newly discovered data done by University of Tokyo researchers, could occur within the next 30-years. But now the seismic activities would suggest that that number is closing in and just within 4 years Tokyo, the home of a 30 million people, could be in danger.
The death counts are now foretold as of yet, but a 2006 research suggest that if a magnitude 7 hit the Tokyo bay area it would result in the death of 5,600 people and injure a further 159,100.
Whilst Japan is still suffering from the 2011 disaster, fear is already engulfing the nations inhabitants. But Japan’s Reconstruction Minister desperately asks them to not to run away:
Please rest assured, and don’t flee Tokyo.
I can prove this [safety] by pointing to the fact that despite the strong lateral movements triggered by the March 11 earthquake, the shinkansen recovered very quickly. I think this is proof how far our earthquake resistance technology has advanced.
Online reactions:
“Tokyo is finished!”
“A 30% chance of it not coming – what a relief!”
“We can finally move the capital in the next 4 years, great.”
“All the 3/11 damage was down to the tsunami. Take care over tsunami and there’s no real problem!”
“No, if it’s directly under Tokyo none of that earthquake resistance will matter at all…”
“Don’t tell me this professor is in the pay of earthquake insurers…”
“What will happen to the Tokyo Sky Tree?”
“Well, if it is underneath I suppose it will fall over. Still, a 7 in the world’s biggest metropolist with 35 million people is going to create pandemonium which will go down in history in any case.”
“Don’t you just love seismologists, giving themselves a 30% margin like that.”
“You people in the regions realise that Tokyo being finished means Japan is finished, I hope?”
“That’s why people are saying to decentralise away from Tokyo…”
“Probably just more government-beholden scholars trying to jack up their budget by causing a stir.”
“They were saying this decades ago. There are always huge quakes in Japan, it’s nothing to worry about now all of a sudden.”
“They’ll be saying exactly the same thing in 10 years.”
“This lot are the same bunch of liars TEPCO has been hiring to push nuclear safety.”
“First, they said no nuclear accident was possible. Now, they say no quake is going to happen in Tokyo. Japan = No Guard.”
“Ignoring some rubbish uni’s predictions I can understand, but as this is Toudai the repercussions will be big. Who’d buy new apartments in Tokyo now…”
“Remember, it’s magnitude 7.0, which is only shindo 6 or so. That’s not too bad.”
“Does anyone still believe these ridiculous percentages they keep coming out with?”
“I doubt the capital would be severely damaged, but the paralysis would be something else…”
“Please hurry up and correct this overconcentration!”
“Nobody minds if they get it wrong and it doesn’t happen, but if it happens unpredicted they will be hung out to dry – naturally it’s better to exaggerate the risk, isn’t being a seismologist great?”
